Fingers crossed

Some people have objected to my Brexit Endgame analysis saying that convention allows nothing of the sort. And that is of course perfectly true but irrelevant. Cummings has already persuaded Johnson to throw aside convention with his failed prorogation scheme. Cummings has demonstrated repeatedly that he would prefer to win by foul means over fair.

There are two scenarios in which Johnson may leave office before October 31st and they are entirely separate. Defeating Johnson in a vote of confidence will have one set of constitutional consequences, Johnson tendering his resignation rather than fulfill the duties of that office will have separate and different consequences.

For the record, yes I have read the Cabinet manual on the topic and it is of precisely no use in this situation. The manual is written on the assumption that the sitting Prime Minister will make a good faith effort to follow convention and prevent a disorderly transfer of power that would embarrass the Queen. The question of what should happen if there is a breach of convention is left to parliament the courts and the monarch to decide according to the specific circumstances.

The specific scenario currently being floated is this: Johnson avoids requesting an extension from the EU by resigning as Prime Minister. The Speaker then makes the request on behalf of parliament and then Johnson resumes his role while continuing to fulminate against the consequences that his own ‘resignation’ allowed.

Like proroguing parliament, it is an utterly absurd and ludicrous scheme but that doesn’t mean Johnson won’t try. It will fail utterly, here is why.

The big hole in the plan is the idea that Johnson can prevent his replacement by resigning without naming a successor. As I see it, the Queen would then be bound to ask Corbyn if he could form a government that would have the confidence of the HoC. Corbyn would undoubtedly say yes at which they would kiss hands and Corbyn would leave the palace for 10 Downing Street as Prime Minister.

The fact that Corbyn might not be able to win a confidence vote is irrelevant. He would become PM immediately and with the full powers of the office. The fact that the unwritten constitution makes this possible may seem absurd but it is merely the unanticipated effects of Cameron’s acceptance of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and the Brexit referendum as the price of gaining personal power.

Corbyn would be a Prime Minister without a mandate or a Commons majority. But he would be no different in that respect from Johnson. The idea that Johnson can resign his office then reclaim it to avoid a particular duty is utterly ridiculous.

So imagine the situation if Corbyn takes to the lectern before entering Downing Street as Prime Minister in these circumstances. He can be virtually certain that the Liberal Democrats, Greens and SNP will provide him with the support he needs to remain in office long enough to stop a No Deal Brexit. And that will be enough because the 21+ whiplesss Tories will abstain.

I can’t be certain how the country would react in such a circumstance but I am pretty sure it would be seen as a major victory for Corbyn and the most humiliating of defeats for Johnson.

The only thing that could save Johnson from an immediate leadership contest is what Corbyn said next. Recall that the Labour party is committed to ‘respecting the referendum result’ which means precisely nothing of course. The Labour party is also committed to negotiating a deal and putting it to a referendum with an option to remain.

This last pledge is of course nonsense and Corbyn knows it. The only point of a second referendum is to heal the divisions in the country. And a choice between a Labour deal he negotiates and remain which he advocated is not going to do anything in that regard.

So my recommendation to Corbyn in those precise circumstances would be this, to offer either Gove or Johnson as leaders of the leave campaign the post of Minister for Exiting the European Union. Their brief being to negotiate a deal to be put to a second referendum in May as the alternative to remain. If both refuse or they conclude it is impossible to present terms that could win a referendum, he will rescind.

My expectation would be that Johnson would refuse and Gove would accept. Having thrown away the party majority and position in government, Johnson would then be ejected from the Tory leadership and a short but satisfyingly acrimonious Tory civil war would follow.

So the outcome I predict from the ‘fingers crossed’ resignation scenario is for a Johnson to be utterly routed in the most humiliating way possible which is of course the reason that it should be considered extremely unlikely. It would take a man who vastly over-estimated his strategic competence to attempt it.

But as he has already demonstrated, Dominic Cummings is such a man.