Brexit Endgame

As we head into the end game here, remember that both sides have options and the other side has to cover every one to win. Whatever people may be saying, this is about shifting blame for the inevitable unpopularity when Brexit is decided. The fact everyone is worrying about popularity among the leavers is the tell that they are the ones going to be shafted.

So don’t be mislead about disunity among the opposition. They need to keep their options open so as to limit Johnson’s. And they are clearly looking to force him to make a move that is drastically unpopular among his supporters.

Specifically the options that they are leaving Johnson are:

1. Resign and make Corbyn Prime Minister.
2. Refuse to ask for an extension and be humiliated again in court.
3. Ask for an extension contrary to his insistence he won’t.
4. Make a proposal to the EU for a deal.

The opposition could almost certainly topple Johnson if they wanted to just as they can certainly force a general election. Swinson knows that if Johnson resigns, the Queen would have no choice other than asking Corbyn to form a government.

The point of opposing Corbyn is to put the blame on Johnson for installing Corbyn as PM. That will suit Swinson perfectly as they will support Labour on a confidence and supply basis only to put the referendum through. And they can then run against Labour and the Tories.

For every other outcome, the optimum approach for Labour is to put in a caretaker government to take the blame. Particularly in the second case where Johnson’s criminal conduct likely leads to a finding of contempt of parliament. The opposition could foreclose this option entirely by passing legislation to repeal the withdrawal bill if no extension request is made. The consequence of Johnson’s lawlessness then becomes losing the game entirely.

Asking for an extension just puts us back where we started with the important difference that Johnson can no longer pretend to be more resolute than May. The idea that he can effect Brexit through the triumph of his will will be obvious nonsense from that point on. Johnson will be a more dishonest, more incompetent version of May who seems to have diverted public money to a woman of ambiguous loyalties for ‘technology lessons’.

Finally, any deal will be as awful as May’s. The price of access to EU markets on favorable terms is compliance with EU regulations and mandates and no amount of spin can hide the fact. Once Johnson has agreed a deal, we put it to a referendum. Farage will campaign against and Johnson’s deal will be defeated.